From a Bull to a Wolf: the Jimmy Butler trade & the aftermath for the Bulls.

THE WOLVES GO UP, THE BULLS GO DOWN.

Wherever you click on a link that leads you to an article talking about and looking to analyse or make sense of what Chicago did at this year’s NBA draft you’ll find one word: unexpected. Yes, it was widely believed that the Bulls would look to move Butler at some point, as they’d never fully committed their future to him and only seemed to see Butler as a B-option on a championship squad, but wasn’t there a conception that Jimmy G. Buckets (credit to Stacey King) would be worth so much more than what the Bulls got for him?

Looking at Jimmy Butler’s impressive resume: he was drafted 30th overall in the 2011 draft and came in as a defensive specialist that never saw much floor-time under former (and future) head coach Tom Thibodeau. Since then, Butler has become the NBA’s Most Improved Player in 2015, a three-time NBA All-Star, an All-NBA Team member and a two way force with averages of 23.9 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 5.5 APG and 1.7 SPG, all while shooting 45% from the field and 36% from three. Jimmy Butler is a superstar in the NBA who, at 27, is about to his his so-called ‘prime’. Butler was one of the few consistencies on this Bulls team and yet, the current front office believed that they would be better off trading him for Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn and the #7 pick in this year’s draft, which turned out to be Lauri Markkanen, a Finnish product from Arizona who seems to be good at spreading the floor and scoring the ball (two aspects the Bulls desperately needed last year).

The return the Bulls got is best described by the three letter word ‘meh’, but it all goes South when looking at possible future repercussions of this deal.

1) The cap space situation.

Let’s start with an easy one, but one that’s not being talked about enough. The deal was made to provide ‘flexibility’ (a word that could easily have been coined by ‘GarPax’, the two-headed monster at the top of the Bulls front office) in the future. However, Jimmy Butler is projected to make a very moderate 18,696,918 USD next season, which is far below the projected max contract average of roughly 30 million USD. At the end of next season, Zach LaVine’s rookie contract will end and he will be in line for an extension. Now granted, LaVine won’t be making the max, but with contracts already going out with an average first year salary of roughly 20 million USD, you could see LaVine making somewhere close to that number. Note: when I say close, I’m assuming he’ll be above 20 million. All that money for a shooting guard who’s proven to be incredibly athletic, but who is also coming off an ACL injury, one of the worst injuries to suffer when your game relies heavily on athleticism (for reference: see Derrick Rose). Looking at Butler’s contract again, his projected salary for 2018-19 is 19,841,624 USD. The three-time All-Star (who will most likely add one or two All-Star games until then) is therefore going to be cheaper than LaVine. That takes away the ‘flexibility’ argument and frankly makes this move look even less thought out than it looked in the first place.

2) The talent level.

When looking at the Bulls’ roster, not a single player name jumps out at you as a superstar or piece to build around. They’ve got a lot of average guys who’ve looked good over stretches of their respective NBA careers, but none of these guys scream ‘future superstar’. If you then look at what the Bulls received for Jimmy, you’ll see that not much changes. LaVine was having a strong year before he tore his ACL in February, but he’s a one way player. His defence is highly questionable and now that he is coming of a knee injury there’s a question of whether or not he will ever be the same player he was before he got hurt. Lauri Markkanen could be just about anything. I’ve heard people rave about his shooting ability, but that makes it sound like there’s nothing else and he’s seen as a specialist at that. Specialist’s are fine if you’re a team looking to fine tune a roster, but if you’re rebuilding, I always thought people would pick upside and star potential over fit or specialty. Nevertheless, I’ve not seen enough of Markkanen to judge him yet. Who knows, he could be the next Porzingis or Dirk and then this deal will look like a fantastic basketball move, but given the Bulls’ most recent track record, I’d assume that he won’t be. As for the third player in the deal, he’s also the one that will most likely tip the scales in either direction. If Kris Dunn turns into the superstar that most people projected him to be about a year ago, this trade was a good move by the Bulls. If Dunn remains to be the defensive specialist and 5 PPG average guy that he was for the T-Wolves last year, then the Bulls will be the laughing stock of the league. To be fair though: I expect to see a lot more from Dunn this year. For one, rookies have never been great in year one when coached by Tom Thibodeau. It is well known that he likes to rely on veterans rather than rookies. Two, Dunn will now be a part of the ‘Hoiball’ system that we’re finally going to see in Chicago. Fred Hoiberg’s offence is said to be a lot quicker and more free-flowing than that of the Timberwolves, which is something that should make Kris and Bulls fans optimistic. Three, Dunn has had down-years before. In fact, going back to his college years, his first year at Providence, his numbers were very similar to those he put up during his freshman year in the NBA. Obviously, he exploded all across the board thereafter. So maybe, Dunn is a player who needs some time to adjust to new environments. Maybe all he needs is time. Thankfully, due to the Bulls finally starting to rebuild, he will have more than enough of it in the Windy City, but whichever way you want to spin this, there are A LOT of question marks surrounding each and every one of these players.

3) Future draft picks.

When people look at and talk about an example of a successful rebuild, they usually bring up the Boston Celtics. And rightfully so! The Celtics traded Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce (players at the backend of their careers) to the Brooklyn Nets for almost nothing but future draft picks and they are currently stacked with high potential picks. As for the Bulls, they dealt Butler for the #7 pick in THIS year’s draft, while also sending their own pick at #16 to the Timberwolves. That is a real head scratcher. You’d assume that giving up Butler would be enough to secure your own draft pick or at least guarantee a future draft pick from the team acquiring him, but the Bulls did neither. As a result, the Bulls will only have their own first round picks in 2018, 2019 and 2020. Considering that, Chicago fans should most definitely expect their Bulls to tank away the next two years. The 2018 draft is said to be an average draft class, which falls off very quickly, while the 2019 draft is currently projected to be the best draft since 2003. It is absolutely frustrating to see that the Bulls did not get any future first round picks from Minnesota. While those might not have been as good as the ones the Celtics got from Brooklyn, the Bulls will now be under constant pressure to hit big on their draft selections, while basically having no other choice but to tank. Free agents have not been kind to Chicago even when they had a roster that could compete with the very best, so how is that going to go when their team is going to be a projected lottery team for the coming years?

All in all, this deal looks like a very rash decision by Gar Forman and John Paxson. They’ve publicly said that they could not have gotten a better deal for Jimmy Butler, but many executives around the league do not believe that this is remotely true. The Bulls have a history of making bad trades and this last one just adds to the list.

Unless of course sophomore Kris gets it Dunn.

 

Notes:

Photo credit – Realsport101

 

NBA Draft ’17: the search for the real MVP.

SHOULD THE CELTICS TAKE LONZO OVER FULTZ?

While the Finals are currently still going on, the score being what it is right (3-1 GSW) has taken a lot of the heat and excitement out of this matchup. Even though the Cavaliers now find themselves in a spot that should be all too familiar, there aren’t many people who would put their money on Cleveland making yet another miraculous comeback.

This brief analysis will therefore skip ahead by roughly one and a half weeks and take a look at the upcoming NBA Draft.

It’s been a while since the draft has been surrounded by so much buzz and while many of it can be attributed to LaVar Ball, a little bit of it may be connected to his talented son Lonzo and the expectation of an overall deep draft this time around. When the Boston Celtics make their first overall selection on June 22, all eyes will almost certainly be on two promising point guard talents: Markelle Fultz and the aforementioned Lonzo Ball.

Fultz seems to be the popular choice, but have the experts spoken to quickly? Does Ball deserve another look at number one? Or is there no debate?

Markelle Fultz is a combo guard with great size, an athletic build and an excellent scoring ability that makes him a threat from almost anywhere on the floor. His offensive game is multi-dimensional and he’s got a very good feel for situations. He’s got the length and quickness to be a great defender.

Lonzo Ball (who’s been dubbed ‘the next Steph Curry’) is an exceptional point guard with incredible floor vision, an ability to make everyone of his teammates better and a touch from beyond the arc that should see him translate to the NBA rather nicely. Of course, he should work on his ugly-looking jumpshot, but more on that later. The biggest concern that teams seem to have with Lonzo Ball isn’t his shot at all, it is his loudmouth father. LaVar Ball has made several outrageous claims leading up to this year’s draft (e.g. claiming that putting Lonzo on the Warriors instead of Curry would make them a better team) and while one could see this as a proud father talking up his son, many scouts and NBA teams seem to feel that LaVar’s outspokenness could become a problem for whoever drafts his son.

But the buck doesn’t stop here. In fact, the Ball family has made it clear that they want to see Lonzo, the LA kid, on the Lakers next year. As we all know, the Lakers’ biggest rivals (at least when it comes to counting championships) are the Boston Celtics and they just so happen to be one spot ahead of Los Angeles. The question therefore becomes: should the Celtics draft Lonzo Ball or are they better off with drafting Markelle Fultz?

Let’s take a look at the pairs college careers:

The 19-year-old Markelle Fultz played for the Washington Huskies and led his team to a miserable 9-22 record. However, Fultz put up an impressive stat line of 23.2 points, 5.9 assists and 5.7 rebounds per game, which has garnered him the honour of being considered the player that is most ‘NBA ready’ and could most probably contribute to any team that drafts him right away. His game has been compared to that of MVP candidate James Harden, but the fact that he could not get his team to the NCAA Tournament is a huge negative for an otherwise very promising NBA talent.

Lonzo Ball, also 19 years of age, played for his hometown UCLA Bruins and led that team to a 31-5 record and the ‘Sweet 16’. While doing so, Ball averaged 14.6 points, 7.6 assists and 6.0 rebounds per game, a stat line less impressive than that of Markelle Fultz in the scoring department, but looking at his assist numbers, the true value of Lonzo the point guard become obvious. Ball has been compared to many NBA legends, but I think one of the most fitting comparisons is that of Jason Kidd with a jumpshot. Lonzo is the definition of a floor general, having excellent distribution skills and basketball vision that must make him a joy to play with. He’s a leader that can organise an offence and bring out the best in his teammates. On the other hand, the kid can flat out shoot. His jumper may be broken, but he still managed an impressive field goal percentage of 55% and a three point percentage of 41%. Ugly jumpshots aren’t new to the NBA (ask Shawn Marion or Kevin Martin), but for a guy whose offensive game relies so much on his shooting ability it really is a valid concern. As Kenny Smith demonstrates here, the awkward looking shot can be effective, especially when Lonzo makes sure that he’s going to his left, but NBA players will pick up on that and try to make him go right, forcing Lonzo to pick the ball up on his left side, giving the defender an easier opportunity to swipe at the ball and go for a steal. Smith is right, at 6’6″, Ball will be able to shoot over a bunch of the smaller guards facing him at the point, but seeing that he brings the ball up from a point very close to his hips, the time the ball travels across his upper body might just be enough for strong defenders to not only contest the shot, but even prevent Lonzo from getting it off.

This is a problem that doesn’t come up with Markelle Fultz. The kid is a natural born scorer. He’s going to find ways to be effective in the NBA and he can shoot it just as well as Lonzo from beyond the arc (averaged 41% from three while at Washington).

It is this sort of versatility that will probably give Fultz the edge over Lonzo Ball when the Celtics get to pick their guy in 10 days. Also, Fultz does not have a nagging dad that’s gone on every TV show imaginable and claimed that his son is going to go down as the best basketball player to ever play the game.

The smartest move would be for the Celtics to go into win-now mode and deal their number one pick to Chicago for Jimmy Butler or Indiana for Paul George, even though he may just be a rental considering the talk of him wanting to go to the Lakers in 2018. Given that Danny Ainge will probably opt not to give up assets for a top 15 NBA player, the choice should be fairly easy: take Markelle Fultz and hope that he’s as NBA ready as they say, because if he doesn’t pan out the way everyone is currently predicting, well then the Celtics may just be throwing away the prime years of their current group, while later on living to regret passing on the talent that is Lonzo Ball.

 

Notes:

Photo credit – CSN